Phoenix trailed at the break Thursday in Portland, but the two sides combined for 93 points by halftime in a game the Mercury eventually won. Dallas closed out its home slate the same night, tied 44-44 at the break with the Sparks before pulling away, another first half that pushed right up against the number on today's ticket. Both clubs are trending toward exactly this kind of shootout start. Dallas is averaging 89.2 points a game, sixth-best in the league, and Phoenix's defense is surrendering 87.3 a night. Flip it around, and Phoenix's offense, averaging 84.4, faces a Dallas defense that allows 85.1. The one data point working against this is the teams' June meeting, when the first half was a defensive slog. That was three months and a very different rotation ago for both sides, and neither team has played that slow since. With Dallas riding a five-game winning streak and Phoenix coming off back-to-back road offensive showings, my read on the pace is a fast start again this afternoon, and we're on the number early. Take the OVER on the first-half total.
This Pro Pick was released to clients on September 19, 2026 at 9:39AM ET.
Phoenix at Dallas
September 19, 2026
1 unit on 1st ½ Total OVER 88 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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