New York at Las Vegas

New York just delivered its best offensive performance in weeks, beating the Sparks 113-109 behind 29 points from Breanna Stewart. That form carries into a third meeting with Las Vegas this season, one the Liberty has won both times, most recently an eight-point win in the Commissioner's Cup final. I won't pretend the overall numbers favor New York right now: Las Vegas has won seven of its last ten to New York's four, and the Liberty defense has genuinely loosened, allowing more than 94 a night over that stretch. But this isn't a clean health picture for the Aces either. Las Vegas is already down a rotation piece for the year and carries three more players day-to-day, while New York is missing a wing and has two more questionable, including Satou Sabally. That gap is close enough that it shouldn't be deciding this number on its own. New York has actually solved this matchup twice already this season, and getting a number just over five points from a team it has beaten straight up both times is where the real value sits. Liberty has earned the benefit of the doubt against this specific opponent, health questions and recent form working roughly evenly on both sides. Take New York to cover.