New York at Golden State

Golden State has built the stingiest defense in the WNBA, and you can read it in their recent scores. The Valkyries have won six of their last eight, and their two wins over Atlanta finished 78-75 and 77-66, the low-possession, half-court rock fights they're built for. They give up the fewest points in the league and play at a deliberate, three-heavy pace that keeps the math small. New York arrives talented but uneven, having lost three of its last four, and there's a real chance Breanna Stewart sits, which would pull a primary scorer out of an offense that's already been stop-and-start. The Liberty did surrender a pile of points in Seattle, but that was a road track meet against a fast team. This is the reverse. A defense-first home club at this pace, against a New York group that may be a weapon short, sets up for a controlled, low-scoring afternoon. The posted total is pricing in more offense than this matchup tends to allow. Take the UNDER.