New York at Connecticut

Connecticut is 8-24 and has the league's worst point differential, so I'm not pretending this is a competitive team on paper. But tonight's number is really about New York, and I like fading the Liberty as a big road favorite on two fronts. New York has won eight of its last ten and is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league at 90.6 points a game, yet their average margin of victory on the season sits at a modest 3.2 points, the profile of a team that piles up points without consistently pulling away from anybody. This is a system I lean on all season, fading high-scoring favorites, and I'm 53-36 with it in 2026 alone. Seven and a half points is a lot to lay on the road against a team that generates offense the way New York does, and scoring a lot of points isn't the same skill as covering a big number. That same thin margin is also why the moneyline carries value at a high price: a team that only wins by field-goal territory on most nights is a team that can be caught on the wrong one, and Connecticut has enough offense to hang around behind a Liberty defense that isn't the reason New York wins. This isn't about picking Connecticut to win outright most nights; it's about grabbing a number the market has overpriced. Take Connecticut on the spread and take a flyer on the moneyline tonight.