New York at Chicago

Chicago snapped a six-game losing streak on Sunday with a road win over Seattle, and the way it got there matters here: Kamilla Cardoso controlled the glass with a 22-point, 12-rebound night, and Natasha Cloud added 20 points in a physical, competitive win. That kind of rebounding performance is exactly the profile I want backing a home underdog, because extra possessions off the offensive boards keep a game close on the scoreboard even against a better opponent. New York is the sharper team on paper at 22-14 and second in the East, but the Liberty have had their own inconsistent stretches on the road, and Chicago catching them off a jump in a game where the Sky control second-chance points is a live spot. The rebounding edge does double duty tonight. It's the reason I like Chicago to stay inside the number on the spread, and it's also a reason to expect extra scoring possessions early that push the first-half total in the right direction, since second-chance points tend to come in bursts rather than spread evenly across 40 minutes. This is the strongest angle on tonight's slate. Back Chicago with the points, lean into the first-half OVER, and don't be surprised if the Sky are still standing at the final buzzer.