Minnesota at Toronto

Toronto and Minnesota met two nights ago at Target Center, and the Tempo left with a workable result, a 100-93 loss that covered a number more than double what actually showed up on the scoreboard. Minnesota's win streak sits at eight now, fueled by Napheesa Collier working her way back into MVP form after missing the season's first 27 games, but that same talent gap is exactly what Toronto just proved it can survive for 40 minutes. Tonight's line is notably tighter than Tuesday's, and it should be. Toronto's defense remains the league's worst by rating, giving up nearly 95 points a night over its last eight, but the offense has stayed functional even shorthanded, and Marina Mabrey gives this team a bucket-getter capable of keeping pace possession for possession. Minnesota is the better team by a wide margin, and nobody is arguing otherwise, but Toronto has now hung within a manageable distance of elite competition twice in the last two weeks. Toronto is the play on the spread tonight.