Minnesota at Phoenix

Phoenix dropped a 75-68 decision to the New York Liberty on Friday, pulling within three possessions in the final minute before New York sealed it from the line — a competitive game against one of the best teams in the league. The Mercury are 2-7, but the record flatters the situation somewhat; Kahleah Copper is in the middle of the worst shooting stretch of her career, connecting at a third of her attempts and missing nearly everything from three, and until she finds her shot the offense runs through Alyssa Thomas, who is still one of the most complete players in this league at nearly 17 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists a game. Minnesota comes in at 6-2 and just routed Chicago, but the Lynx are built on defense — they're allowing fewer than 77 points a game, one of the stingiest marks in the league. A low-scoring, grind-it-out game in Phoenix plays right into Thomas's hands and takes the ball out of Minnesota's perimeter shooters' comfort zone. The market has Phoenix priced as an underdog at home, which is too wide for a team with this much talent at the top of their roster. Napheesa Collier is the best player on the floor, but this is a game where the defense dominates on both ends. Phoenix wins at home, and this one stays well UNDER the posted total. Take the Mercury and the UNDER.