Minnesota at New York

We took the UNDER with Minnesota Sunday in Dallas and cashed it, a possession-by-possession win that stayed in the 160s once the Lynx defense got its hands on things. That same identity travels to Brooklyn tonight, but this is the toughest matchup of Minnesota's season: the league's other elite team, on its own floor, with Jonquel Jones controlling the paint and Breanna Stewart doing what she's done all year. Napheesa Collier is a game-time decision after her first practice reps since ankle surgery, and even if she plays, nobody looks like an MVP candidate in a season debut off a nine-month layoff. That's a genuine swing factor, but it's not the kind of swing that turns a two-and-a-half point spread into a laugher either way. I like New York getting the number here. The Liberty have been sharper at home than on the road all season, and a game between the two best teams left in this league rarely gets decided by more than a possession. That same tightness argues for the total staying under, too: two defenses this good playing a game this close tend to grind, not run. Minnesota's defensive rating is the best in the WNBA, and New York's offense has been noticeably tamer at Barclays than on the move. Take New York with the points, and pair it with the UNDER tonight.