Minnesota at Los Angeles

Minnesota is the best team in the league at 11-3, fresh off dropping 107 on Portland, and they travel with the stingiest defense in the WNBA, holding teams under 76 a night. Los Angeles sits at .500 and just got held to 58 in a 20-point loss at Golden State, the kind of no-show this offense is prone to. The Sparks run everything through Kelsey Plum, and a defense this good against an offense that disappears for stretches points to a slog: half-court, low-possession, clock-draining basketball. That style keeps the scoreboard down, and it keeps a home underdog within range of a double-digit number, because fewer trips mean fewer chances for Minnesota to pull away late. The risk is a track meet against L.A.'s soft defense. The likelier path is a Minnesota team content to grind, win the game, and empty the bench early. I'm trusting the Sparks to stay inside the number at home. Take Los Angeles.