Minnesota at Las Vegas

Minnesota is 28-7 and has the best record in the league, but Las Vegas isn't some pushover catching a letdown spot. The Aces are 24-11 themselves, third-best mark in the WNBA, and they're at home tonight, which is exactly the setup I like when fading a heavy favorite: a legitimately good team getting overlooked because the team across from them is having a historic season. A'ja Wilson is averaging 25.9 points and 9.7 rebounds a night and gives Las Vegas a two-way force who can match up with anybody Minnesota trots out, Napheesa Collier included. This is a system I lean on all year, catching a quality home underdog against an elite team, and it's a strong 11-6 for me already this season. A point and a half is next to nothing to lay for the best team in basketball on the road, and I don't need Las Vegas to win outright, just to hang around behind a star who can carry them there. Side with Las Vegas on the spread tonight.