Los Angeles at Minnesota

Minnesota enters this one at 25-6, the best record in the league, and getting Napheesa Collier back from ankle surgery has only deepened an already stacked roster. We took Indiana against this same Minnesota team four days ago, and it didn't go our way: the Lynx led wire-to-wire to win by eight, 108-100, the kind of result that explains why Minnesota is priced this heavily again tonight. Los Angeles is 11-18 and now without Kelsey Plum, sidelined by an ankle sprain that will keep her out at least a week. None of that argues Los Angeles wins this game outright, and it shouldn't: this is about the number, not the final score. That 15.5 points is an enormous number to lay even for a team playing this well, and the line has already come in from where it opened, Minnesota's moneyline dropping from -1600 to -1400 as the market backed off the most extreme version of this spread. Blowouts happen against a team this shorthanded, but elite teams running up 16-plus most nights against bad opponents isn't the norm even in the WNBA's most lopsided matchups, and a comfortable Minnesota lead invites bench minutes and a backdoor cover late. Take Los Angeles with the points tonight.