Las Vegas at Toronto

I had Toronto's total in a win four days ago against Washington, and the same profile that pushed that number over is on display again tonight against a much better opponent. The Tempo rank last in the league in points allowed, giving up nearly 94 a night, and that defense is walking into a matchup with a Las Vegas team that has gone 23-11 and does not need much room to score. A defense this leaky does not usually wait until the fourth quarter to show itself, and against an efficient Aces offense that gets into its sets in a hurry, I like the pace to show up early and carry the first-half total past its number too. That same defensive gap is the OVER case for the full game, but it also frames the other side of tonight's ticket. Toronto still puts up 87.5 points a night itself, eighth-best in the league, which means a defense that cannot get stops is paired with an offense that can still put points on the board, and that combination is exactly what keeps a huge home underdog inside a number this large. Getting this big a cushion against a team that scores as easily as it gets scored on is the profile I want on the spread tonight. The Aces are the better team by a wide margin, but the way this matchup plays out, all three legs are pulling from the same rope: a track meet from the opening tip that Vegas wins outright while Toronto's own offense keeps it from getting away by the number. Take the first-half OVER, take the full-game OVER, and take Toronto with the points tonight.