Las Vegas at Phoenix

Las Vegas arrives in Phoenix at 10-4, and on paper, that gap looks enormous against a 4-11 Mercury team going nowhere. Look closer at the spot. The Aces just got run off the floor in Dallas, a 30-point loss that exposed how flat they can play, and they're back on the road again with Jewell Loyd (illness) questionable. Phoenix isn't good, but they already hung a blowout on Vegas once this season on opening night, and they're home, where strange things happen to favorites that show up disinterested. This is a price play, plain and simple. At +270, Phoenix only has to win this a little better than one time in four to show a profit, and a banged-up Aces team on the second leg of a road trip is exactly the kind of favorite that hands you that one. Phoenix doesn't need to win most nights at these odds. It just needs to win a touch more often than the market is pricing. Take the Mercury and the fat number tonight.