Las Vegas at New York

A’ja Wilson is out tonight with the ankle she rolled Sunday in Chicago, and that’s the whole reason this number ballooned. Vegas opened catching a basket and a half, and now you’re getting nearly a touchdown. Losing the league’s leading scorer is real, but a four-point move on one name is the kind of overcorrection the market tends to make when a star sits, and the team catching those extra points is a Liberty club that can’t score right now. New York has lost both games it’s played since these two met, bottoming out Sunday at Golden State with 67. The Liberty are stingy on defense at 83.5 allowed a night, but so are the Aces at 86.4, and Vegas is 9-2 on the road even with everything going sideways. A full touchdown against an offense in this kind of rut is enough cushion to ride. The same math applies to the total. Take Wilson’s 25-plus off the board, layer in two strong defenses and a New York attack stuck in the mud, and there’s no engine to push this one up. Their meeting six days ago, with Wilson playing, still produced just 163. Take Las Vegas with the points and back the UNDER tonight.