Las Vegas at New York

Las Vegas played the second half of a back-to-back in Minnesota on Saturday, and I faded the Aces into that letdown spot, and we cashed when the Lynx rolled by eleven. Today the situation flips. Vegas has to close that back-to-back on almost no rest and fly in to face a Liberty team that's had three days off, yet the number the market has hung on this game is a significant one for a club that still sits ahead of New York in the standings at 22-10 and has been excellent away from home this season at 13-5 on the road. New York is also playing shorthanded, without Satou Sabally, sidelined with a concussion, and Leonie Fiebich, out with a foot injury, thinning a defense that already ranks just ninth in the league in points allowed. Both offenses are humming: the Aces sit third in the league in scoring, the Liberty fourth, and their two meetings this season have produced combined totals of 163 and 203 points, an average of 183, comfortably clear of the posted total. Neither defense is built to slow this pace down, and Vegas carries enough shooting and firepower to hang within that kind of number even on tired legs, while the same shootout tendency and New York's thinned-out rotation point the same direction on the total. Take Las Vegas with the points and the OVER today.