Indiana at Toronto

Indiana has the league's best-scoring offense, averaging 97 points a game, and the Fever are playing like it right now, winning two straight. Toronto, at 11-29 and already eliminated from playoff contention, is the opposite story: they've lost nine of their last ten and run the worst defense in the WNBA, surrendering nearly 94 points a night. That gap is the whole case tonight. Indiana's offense against Toronto's defense points to a total well above where the number sits, and I like that number to show up early too, with a fast first half as the Fever push the pace from tip-off against a defense that hasn't been able to slow anyone down at home, where Toronto is just 7-13 on the year. The spread is the trickier piece, and it's not really about Toronto winning. A team with nothing left to play for tends to play loose rather than fold once a game gets out of hand, and Toronto's inability to defend cuts both ways, since the Fever's lead is unlikely to come with the kind of defensive clampdown that shuts a back-and-forth game down early. Both of those forces point in the same direction: a high-scoring game from start to finish that never fully gets away from the number. Back the full-game OVER, grab the first-half OVER, and side with Tempo on the spread tonight.