Indiana at Seattle

Seattle has lost six in a row, but four of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, and the game that matters most here is the one against tonight's opponent: eleven days ago in Indianapolis, the Storm pushed Indiana to the final possession before falling 110-107 on the road. That's a far more useful data point than Indiana's most recent output, a 123-88 demolition of a Connecticut team that ranks among the league's worst by a wide margin. The Fever are legitimately playing well right now, with three straight wins, and this group deserves respect as a near double-digit favorite. But the number has to account for what actually happened the last time these two teams shared a floor, not just the scoreboard against a historically bad Sun club, and Seattle gets this matchup at home instead of on the road. Seattle keeps games competitive even in the middle of a losing streak, and getting north of nine and a half after a three-point head-to-head loss on the road last week is the kind of number I want on the dog. Seattle is the right side on the spread tonight.