Golden State at Los Angeles

Three days ago we had the Sparks getting a mountain of points in Minnesota, and it cashed with room to spare when Los Angeles won outright, 89-82, snapping a Lynx winning streak. That's the version of this team the market keeps underpricing. Los Angeles sits at 12-18 and has been reshaped since the trade deadline, having shipped Kelsey Plum to Phoenix on August 2 for a first-round pick and guard Monique Akoa Makani. On paper that looks like a team that's packed it in. On the scoreboard it hasn't played that way: the Sparks have covered seven of their last ten games, several as sizable underdogs, while going just 3-7 straight up over that stretch. The problem isn't competitiveness, it's a defense allowing 93.9 points a game, worst mark in the league, which keeps final scores messy without ever pushing Los Angeles outside these numbers. There's no one new on the injury report either; this is a full but reshuffled group, not a banged-up one. Golden State arrives at 22-9 and has won eight of its last ten, but it's been shakier against the number than the record suggests, going just 6-4 against the spread over the same run and missing the cover in a win over Toronto by half a point. The Valkyries are also closing out the second stop of a road trip that started in Dallas Friday, a quick cross-country turnaround before this one. Put those pieces together and Los Angeles is live to keep this one inside a big number, and this shouldn't be a game that needs the number at all. At this price, the Sparks don't need to win most of these, just often enough to beat what the market implies. Take Los Angeles on the spread today, and take a flyer on the moneyline right alongside it.