Golden State at Connecticut

We took Connecticut plus the points against Minnesota on Monday, and it cashed easily, the Sun defense holding a Lynx attack in check even in a loss. That is the team that shows up tonight: physical and competitive, not the pushover the record suggests. Golden State arrives on a five-game win streak and sits atop the WNBA in scoring defense, a profile that makes a line like this look automatic. But automatic and profitable are not the same thing. The Valkyries have been grinding out low-possession wins rather than blowing teams out, including one Monday when not a single starter reached double figures. Connecticut has shown it can hang in a slow, physical game, and Brittney Griner's interior scoring gives the Sun a way to punish a defense that leans on length over size on the interior. At this price, close to 3-to-1, Connecticut does not need to win outright most nights, just often enough to beat what the market prices in, and that number sits a shade above one time in four. The market has priced this win as close to a sure thing, but sure things still have to clear the number to pay. Take a flyer on the Sun tonight.