Golden State at Chicago

Golden State ran Chicago off the floor by twenty when these two met in San Francisco on August 12, but the Valkyries arrive in Chicago tonight on the back end of a longer road trip, having just lost to Minnesota 77-66 on Wednesday. That is a different look than the team that torched the Sky three weeks ago. Chicago has won its last two games, holding off Seattle and then beating New York behind Natasha Cloud, who dropped 35 points and 9 rebounds in that win. The pace here matters. Chicago plays the fastest tempo in the league, while Golden State ranks dead last in pace among all 15 teams, a club built around slowing games down and grinding out possessions. Forcing the Valkyries to run is exactly the kind of night that keeps a home underdog inside the number even without stealing the outright win. Golden State still owns the best defense in the league by rating, but Chicago is 9-9 at home compared to 5-13 on the road, and that split shows up against a Valkyries team that is 10-5 away from San Francisco. Chicago is the right side on the spread at home tonight, and I do not expect a repeat of the blowout from three weeks ago.