Dallas at Washington

These two have already given us a preview this season, and it settled well below tonight's number: a 92-69 final in Dallas back in Washington's fourth game, a 23-point margin built on the same formula the Mystics have leaned on all year. Washington's defense has held opponents to 42.6% shooting this season, stingy by any measure, and its last ten games have played out at a combined 164 points a night. Dallas comes in fresh off an 82-81 loss to Atlanta, a game its starters had to shoulder almost entirely — they scored 80 of the team's 81 points — exactly the kind of grinding, possession-heavy performance that keeps a total down rather than pushing it up. Washington also arrives with a real form of its own, winners of three straight, including Tuesday's win over Connecticut, without needing to light up the scoreboard to do it. Neither club is playing fast right now, and the one time these two actually shared a floor this year, the number came in nowhere close to tonight's total. Take the UNDER tonight.