Dallas at Washington

We had the total UNDER in this exact matchup Friday, and it cashed comfortably as Washington leaned on defense to hold Dallas to 75 in an 81-75 win. Different game tonight. The Wings arrive for the rubber match still armed with the league's most pass-heavy, up-tempo attack, and there's no incentive for Dallas to sit back and risk another halfcourt slog against a defense that just did that to them. Washington isn't hiding from pace either. The Mystics' four-game win streak includes a 100-99 track meet over the defending champion Aces, proof this defense, second-best in the league in points allowed, can still get pulled into a shootout against the right kind of attack. Shakira Austin dropped a season-high 28 in the last meeting here, Paige Bueckers answered with 23 of her own, and both sides have real playoff positioning riding on tonight's rubber match. The first-half OVER is my play.