Dallas at Toronto

We had Toronto in the UNDER on Wednesday when Golden State strangled them to 75, and the same shorthanded look shows up again tonight. Brittney Sykes is still out with a plantar fascia issue, missing her sixth straight game, and Kiki Rice remains sidelined with a Grade 3 ankle sprain, her eleventh absence in a row. That strips Toronto of the shot creation that used to push its offense into the mid-90s. What is left is Marina Mabrey trying to do it alone and a frontcourt that can still flash scoring, the way Isabelle Harrison's 24 kept Wednesday's loss from getting out of hand. Dallas is closing out a four-game road trip tonight, the kind of stretch that saps legs even for a team playing its best basketball of the season. A tired road favorite against a home team that cannot consistently create easy looks points to a slower, lower-possession game than the posted total suggests, and it also means Toronto does not need much offense to stay inside a full possession of Dallas. The Wings won the first meeting comfortably, but that game came with Toronto fresher, and it has not stopped this team from hanging around at home when the number gives it room. My model likes the number more than the moneyline tells you. Take Toronto with the points, and take the UNDER tonight.