Dallas at New York

Dallas and New York both sit at 13-8, and the identical record isn't the only thing lining up. Both offenses score at nearly the same rate, and both defenses have been stingy all year, holding opponents to the mid-80s. That's not a matchup built for a track meet. New York is without Satou Sabally tonight, a double-digit scorer lost to a concussion, thinning an offense that already leans heavily on Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to create points in the paint. Dallas has been efficient without needing volume, and that style tends to grind rather than explode. Neither side is built to trade buckets in a shootout, and with a legitimate scoring threat sidelined for the home team, the path to a big number gets even narrower. The total has crept up during the day, but the numbers underneath it, two solid defenses and one lineup down a scorer, point the other way. Take the UNDER tonight.