Dallas at Minnesota

Dallas quietly leads the WNBA in offensive rating through 11 games — with Jessica Shepard operating as a reliable double-double presence and Azzi Fudd growing into the No. 1 pick role — even as Arike Ogunbowale has yet to fully hit her stride. They put up 104 points against Los Angeles on Friday without Ogunbowale carrying the load, and this offense's ceiling may not have been tested yet. Tonight, though, they walk into Target Center and the WNBA's most suffocating defense. Minnesota allows 78.4 points per game — the league's best mark — with a defensive rating of 97.1 built and maintained without Napheesa Collier in the lineup. The Lynx don't have an off night on that end. The same defense that has powered a seven-game winning streak and a 9-2 record will be compressed in this game. That compression is what ties both sides of this ticket together: it keeps the combined scoring well below the posted total, while Dallas's offensive firepower gives them a floor that makes getting blown out of this gym a difficult proposition, even against the best team in the WNBA. Go with Dallas on the spread and play the UNDER.