Dallas at Indiana

We were on Toronto's number in Dallas on Wednesday, and it held, with the Tempo losing by six as a double-digit dog. Tonight the Wings are the ones getting points, and the number looks short for what this matchup keeps producing. These two opened the season at Indiana with Dallas winning 107-104, and nothing since suggests a grind: the Fever are scoring 96.2 a game, the Wings 89.0, and Indiana just hung 64 first-half points on New York on the way to a 106-92 win Tuesday. That is the spine of both legs here. The posted first-half number is below half of what these two average together over a full game, and Indiana has been front-loading its scoring rather than saving it. The same pace is what keeps Dallas live: possessions are the underdog's friend, and the Wings have taken six of their last eight in Indiana dating to 2021. There is also a live pattern for teams facing an opponent off a night of heavy, efficient three-point volume, and the Fever went 16-for-25 from deep on Tuesday. Back the Wings with the points and the first-half OVER tonight.