Connecticut at Washington

Connecticut walked into a buzzsaw last time out, an 88-123 blowout in Indianapolis that ballooned to a 36-point deficit before it was over, but buried in that loss was a version of this team that's live at these numbers: 50 points in the paint and a heavy diet at the free-throw line, the profile of a road underdog that keeps games honest even while losing badly. Washington has won two straight and sits two games clear of .500, but this is a team that wins with defense and pace control, not scoring bursts, ranking near the bottom of the league in points per game itself at 80.8. Neither side is built to run up a number. Connecticut's own offense checks in just as light, at exactly 80 a night, and a matchup between two teams that struggle to crack the mid-80s on a given night sets up a total that's already been priced down into the high 150s for good reason. That same offensive limitation cuts both ways for this ticket: it's exactly why Connecticut, buried as they are in the standings, has kept spreads honest on the road this season, and why the total has a real shot to stay under even with Washington playing well. I like Connecticut to hang around behind a favorable pace, and I like the pace itself to produce a lower-scoring night than the number suggests. Take Connecticut with the points and the UNDER.