Connecticut at Toronto

The Connecticut Sun have dropped 11 of 13 games this season, but the margins don't match the record. Both of their last two losses came by single digits — five at Chicago, nine to New York at home — and the Liberty are sitting at 8-4, among the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Connecticut outscored New York in the second quarter and closed the final frame even. A team keeping pace against that competition doesn't fall apart against a Toronto club that shot 4-for-22 from three in its last home win. The Tempo are legitimately better at home — the spread reflects it — but laying this number against a Sun squad that drew 23 free throw attempts against the Liberty asks for a margin the recent results don't support. Connecticut's free-throw shooting has been a liability, hovering near 56 percent in recent outings, leaving points on the floor. But drawing 23 free throw attempts in a single game puts points on the board even at that rate. The ML at this price adds a second layer worth the flyer. Connecticut needs to win this game roughly one time in four to turn a profit at these odds, and they've already proven capable of pulling the upset — they beat the Sparks earlier this season. Take the Sun on the spread for a bigger play, and grab another unit on the moneyline.