Connecticut at Las Vegas

Connecticut is 9-25 and can't hide from that, but the version of the Aces they're walking into tonight isn't the buzzsaw a 16-point number suggests. Las Vegas has dropped two straight and four of six, getting bounced from second down to fourth in the standings, and Becky Hammon got tossed in the second quarter of Tuesday's 97-82 loss to Atlanta. A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young are still Wilson and Young, but the supporting cast hasn't shown up all season, to the point where one of those two has led the team in scoring in 31 of 37 games. That's not depth, that's dependency, and it's exactly the kind of team that leaves a big number on the board when the role players go cold. Vegas is a sub-500 team against the spread this year, and my numbers show their last 10 games have actually been outscored on average, not blown open. Connecticut, meanwhile, just won 85-77 over the Sparks with 23 assists and an 18-point, 11-rebound double-double from Olivia Nelson-Ododa. The road trip is the real concern here, but a shorthanded Aces team playing without urgency has no business laying 16, and that's the mismatch we're banking on. Take the Sun with the points tonight.