Connecticut at Atlanta

Connecticut is 10-30 and out of the playoff race, while Atlanta is locked into the postseason, with real seeding still up for grabs. That gap looks lopsided on paper until you check how these games have actually settled. The Sun are 12-11 against the spread this season, a team that loses far more than it wins outright but has covered close to as often as not. Atlanta is playing without Brionna Jones tonight, and a margin this wide has been the exception in Atlanta's home games, not the rule, even with extra motivation to climb the standings. Connecticut is also shorthanded, missing Brittney Griner, Kennedy Burke, and Leila Lacan, with Diamond Miller questionable, which is a real issue for staying competitive in a vacuum. It matters less when you have a double-digit cushion against a Dream Team managing its own frontcourt hole. Back Connecticut on the spread tonight.