Chicago at Indiana

Chicago has lost two straight: a 17-point road loss in Toronto and a 7-point defeat at home to Atlanta on Tuesday. What those games reveal is a team limited by its offense, not one getting blown off the floor. Skylar Diggins is shooting 38.6% on the season, and the Sky as a unit are converting just 41% from the field, producing 80.2 points per game — 11th out of 15 teams. Indiana is a legitimate home squad at 4-2, and Kelsey Mitchell is scoring 20.5 per night at 46.3% shooting, but the Fever's ability to build a big lead depends on generating something Chicago can't match on the other end. Indiana's last win was a 78-76 grinder against Washington. This team doesn't reliably run opponents out of gyms. With Chicago's floor dragging the total well below 172 and Indiana unable to force a blowout against a defense that limits scoring by simple attrition, the number asks for too much. Take Chicago on the spread and play the UNDER tonight.