Atlanta at Phoenix

Atlanta has been one of the best teams in the East all season, and the Dream have already beaten Phoenix twice this year, including a 14-point win back on August 5. That history is a big part of why tonight's number sits where it does, and it is also why it might be a point or two too generous to the favorite. Atlanta walks into the desert without Brionna Jones, its starting forward and a steady piece of a team that has leaned on its size and rebounding all season. Phoenix has struggled in most phases, ranking near the bottom of the league in both scoring efficiency and points allowed, but the Mercury do get a jolt back in Kelsey Plum, even with her status carrying a game-time question mark on a calf issue. A high-scoring, healthy favorite covering by two possessions on the road makes sense. Doing it again without a piece that has been in the rotation all season, against a team getting a key scorer back, is a tougher ask than the spread suggests. Take Phoenix on the spread tonight.