Atlanta at Golden State

Golden State has scored 73 and 75 in back-to-back games entering tonight, with its offense sputtering through a stretch in which its most reliable weapons have gone quiet. The Valkyries shot 5-for-30 from three-point range in their last outing, a historically poor output from the perimeter, and nothing in recent games suggests a correction is imminent. Atlanta brings a 12-4 record and legitimate two-way capability, but the Dream are making a cross-country trip for a late West Coast start, which tends to show up in shot-making for Eastern teams in ways that don't always register until the final score. There's a specific situational lean here as well: teams that trailed by 20 or more at halftime in their previous game have historically played into unders in their next outing, and Golden State found themselves down exactly that much at the break against Las Vegas. The total here provides a substantial cushion. Go with the UNDER.