Atlanta at Dallas

Atlanta closed out the first half on a high note, Allisha Gray dropping 29 and Jordin Canada hitting a go-ahead layup at the buzzer to beat Chicago, and the Dream carried that momentum into the break, having won three of their last four after snapping a five-game skid. They've also owned this particular matchup, taking both meetings with Dallas already this season and four straight dating back over a year. That history matters here because the numbers line up almost evenly: Atlanta ranks fifth in the league offensively at 89.3 a night, and Dallas's defense sits fifth in the league allowing 86.2, a matchup close enough that recent form and familiarity carry real weight. Dallas gets center Alanna Smith back after missing three games, but she's only probable, not a clean bill of health, and this Wings team has been vulnerable defensively without her length up front. Atlanta has held up well in these small-number spots where games are often decided in single possession. Side with Atlanta on the spread tonight.