Atlanta at Connecticut

Connecticut is 8-23 and owns the league's worst point differential at -7.1 a game, but that's an offense problem more than a defensive one; the Sun's issue is scoring, not stopping anybody in particular. Tonight's spot is really about Atlanta. The Dream are 20-12 and one of the league's best offenses at 89.6 points per game, yet their average margin of victory is a modest 3.6 points, the signature of a team that scores in bunches without ever putting a defensive stranglehold on a game. Their last four outings have produced 202, 178, 196, and 187 combined points, the kind of number that keeps climbing regardless of opponent. We had Atlanta's total earlier this week against Toronto, and it cashed for the same reason: this defense doesn't get stops; it just tries to outscore whoever's across from it. That same generosity is what keeps a lifeless Connecticut offense involved deep into games it has no business staying in, and the Sun snapped a rough stretch of their own with a 75-72 win over Phoenix last time out. Pair Atlanta's refusal to slow down with a defense that can't make anyone miss, and the total keeps climbing while the favorite never pulls far enough away to cover a double-digit number. I like both sides of this shape tonight: the total staying live deep into the fourth, and Connecticut hanging around behind it. Take the Sun with the points and the OVER.