New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics

It's the second of a back-to-back spot for New York after an emotional victory yesterday at formally unbeaten Connecticut. It's also their third game in four days. Washington is working on one day of rest after covering in an 85-83 loss to Indiana. Washington is on a 6-5 spread run, including 2-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. New York is 10-19 ATS as a home favorite, including 5-15 ATS as home chalk of 12.5 or higher. They're also 33-55 ATS after playing four straight as a favorite. Play Washington as a Max Play.

New York is a fine team but has been overvalued, failing to cover five in a row. Over the last three games, they've lost twice in a 90-81 defeat to Chicago as a -16.5 home favorite and an 84-67 loss to Minnesota as -6.5-point chalk. WNBA double-digit home favorites that outscore opponents by +3 to +7 points per game on average are 21-49 ATS versus teams like Washington that are outscored on average by 7+ points. New York is 30-54 ATS after playing four straight as a favorite, 9-18 ATS as home chalk, and 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Play Washington as a Max Play. 

Two of the league's top defensive teams from last year open the new season tonight in Washington. New York was fourth in the WNBA in points given up while allowing j42.52% shooting. New York’s bench is a weak spot, lacking reliable depth, and is without Marine Johannès (7.1 ppg), who is sitting out the season. Washington was fifth in the WNBA in points surrendered while the offense was eighth in the 12-team league in scoring and ninth in shooting. Washington is rebuilding on offense after losing leading-scorer Elena Delle Donne (16.7 ppg) and third-leading Natasha Cloud (12.7 ppg). Take New York/Washington UNDER the total. 

Washington will try to stay alive in the playoffs after losing Game 1 of the three-game series 90-75 on Friday while shooting only 41.3 percent. The game went OVER by two points, and the Mystics are on a 5-0 run OVER against teams with winning records. The Mystics are getting double digits again and they are 5-1 ATS the past six meetings with New York, including an outright 90-88 victory in the regular season finale. Washington will need to shoot better from the 3-point line as it hit only 5 of 22 in Game 1. Myisha Hines-Allen led the Mystics with 21 points after averaging only 5.6 points this season. Washington is 4-1-1 ATS its past six after a loss and 6-2 OVER following an ATS loss. New York is 11-3 OVER versus Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Mystics and the OVER. 

Washington ended the regular season on a 5-2 ATS run capped by a 90-88 win over New York on Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog and it went OVER by 15.5 points. Now the Mystics play the Liberty again in the first round of the playoffs after splitting the season series at two games apiece and covering the spread in all four and the last three went OVER. The Mystics hit 50 percent of their shots on Sunday and held New York to 41 percent overall and 32 percent from 3-point range. The Liberty have gone OVER six of eight games, including their past three by an average of 17.6 points. Washington has gone OVER four straight versus opponents with winning records and New York is 10-3 OVER against the Eastern Conference. Play the Mystics and the OVER.