New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm Point Spread Picks

Seattle is 3-15 and has dropped 11-straight, so let's be clear about what this is not: a pick built on the Storm's quality. They are running the league's worst offense and playing without several key contributors. The case here is purely about the market. The Liberty comes in at 12-6, just off a road win over Las Vegas, and the public has piled heavily onto New York tonight, the kind of one-sided action that tends to push the number past its fair value. Professional money has landed on Seattle, both against the posted spread and on the moneyline. That matters more than the standings do. The Storm have been covering all season consistently despite the record, keeping losses competitive behind a young core that competes hard even when results fall short. Dominique Malonga and Flau'jae Johnson have been the team's two most encouraging players through this run. Seattle is live in a spot that has historically shown value for struggling home clubs against imposing favorites in the first half of the season. Take the Storm against the posted spread, and take a small flyer on the moneyline tonight. 

New York's offense stumbled against Golden State's tough defense in the last game. Breanna Stewart leads an offense that is third in the WNBA in scoring (84.5 points per game), fourth in shooting (45.2%), second from long range (35.5%), and No. 1 from the free-throw line. The defense is second in shooting allowed (42.16%), and it is also outstanding at defending the three-point shot. Seattle comes off a 91-85 home loss to L.A. as a 7.5-point favorite. They rank second-to-last in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The offense is seventh in shooting and eighth from the free-throw line. Seattle has a losing home record and is on a 3-9 SU/1-11 ATS streak at home, including a 0-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. Play New York.

Seattle has winning records both home and away. They're third in the WNBA in shooting (45.72%) and second in 3-point shooting (35/9%), while the defense is fifth in points allowed. Seattle has won eight of the last 11 after an 80-79 win at Atlanta as Nneka Ogwumike scored 24 points. They've also won four of their last six on the road. New York has lost five of eight since that 9-0 start. Two home games ago, they lost to Phoenix, 89-81, as a double-digit favorite. They come off a win over Atlanta but played again without leading rebounder Jonquel Jones (12.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg), who has been sidelined with a sprained ankle. Three picks for this game: Take Seattle ATS, bet the OVER, and grab the Storm on the moneyline.

Seattle is 6-2 ATS the past eight meetings and the Storm look to avenge a 98-85 loss to the Liberty on Aug. 30. The Storm come off a 71-64 win over Connecticut on Tuesday and they are 6-0-1 ATS their past seven Thursday games. New York is just 5-13 ATS its past 18 home games and 0-5 ATS the past five meetings at home against Seattle. The Liberty are home following a three-game West Coast trip and they have split their past four games, including a 94-88 loss as a 12.5-point favorite against Los Angeles. Take the points with the Storm.