Minnesota Lynx vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

Minnesota is the best team in the league right now, and Wednesday it proved it again, winning on the road against the league's top-rated defense, 77-66, to extend its winning streak to six. That is the toughest fact working against Washington tonight, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. But the Mystics have been playing their best basketball too, winners of eight of their last ten, with a 93-82 statement win over Toronto their last time out. Washington will not out-score Minnesota. Nobody has managed that this season, and Minnesota ranks second in the league in offensive efficiency for a reason. Washington wins this by controlling the glass and locking in on the other end: Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen both rank inside the league's top five in rebounding, and Washington carries the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA, right behind Minnesota's own. Extra possessions and a slower pace are exactly how a team keeps a heavy favorite from pulling away. Minnesota's Olivia Miles is probable with an ankle issue, a small crack in an otherwise complete roster. Washington is live in a situation I like all season: a home underdog getting points against a team that has won 75% or more of its games, and this is as clean a fit as I will find. Take Washington with the points as my WNBA Game of the Week.

Washington already has the blueprint for this one. Three days ago, the Mystics went into Minnesota and beat the Lynx 84-79, outscoring them 28-19 in the fourth quarter to close it out. Now they're home, and the market is asking them to give back nearly ten points to the same team they just beat on the road. Minnesota is the best team in the West at 13-4, but the Mystics demonstrated Sunday that they can match them. Sonia Citron finished with 21, Cotie McMahon hit four of four from deep to add 15, and Kiki Iriafen chipped in 17. Washington's bench outscored Minnesota's by 19. The Lynx shot 19 percent from three-point range and couldn't find any rhythm from the perimeter. The sharp side of the market agrees — the majority of sharp dollars are on Washington to cover despite the lopsided public lean toward Minnesota. At this number, this is a straightforward play. Back Washington to cover.

Minnesota is playing the best basketball in the league. At 13-3 and leading the Western Conference, the Lynx are putting up over 92 points a game on the highest-scoring offense in the WNBA while holding opponents to under 80. Their advanced metrics rank first in net efficiency across the league. They are built to blow teams out at home, and they have done exactly that six straight times at Target Center. All of that is true. What is also true is that Washington walked into Barclays Center on Friday night and knocked off an 11-win Liberty team, 86-83, ending an eight-game winning streak. The Mystics are not soft right now — Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, and Shakira Austin are all logging double figures — and the number tonight is enormous. Minnesota will win this. The margin is the whole argument. Spot the Mystics nearly 15 points against any team in the league, even this one, and there is value in the number. Side with Washington tonight.

Minnesota has a big game against New York on deck on Sunday, and the Lynx could be looking ahead to that matchup as they play the Mystics tonight. The Lynx have gone OVER six straight games, and the last meeting went OVER by 11 points on July 3. Washington won the first time the teams met this year, 68-64, on June 24, even while shooting just 37 percent. The Mystics traded their leading scorer, Brittney Sykes, to Seattle. However, Minnesota will be missing Napheesa Collier due to an ankle sprain. Look for the remaining players to step up at least in this game after Washington's midseason trades. Take the Mystics ATS, on the moneyline, and the OVER.

Washington ends a three-game road trip with the defense allowing 83 and 79 points in the first two. For the season, they're allowing 80.1 points per game, on a 5-4 run OVER the total. Some good news for the offense is that leading scorer Brittney Sykes (18.6 ppg) returned to the starting lineup in the last game after missing three contests. Minnesota is second in the WNBA in scoring (85.3 ppg) and No. 1 in shooting (46.7%) behind All-Star Napheesa Collier (24.4 ppg). The offense is in bounce-back mode after its worst performance of the season in a loss to Indiana at home, shooting 34.9% from the floor and making just four of 16 treys after averaging 9.4 3-pointers this year. Play Washington/Minnesota OVER the total.