Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire Point Spread Picks

Minnesota just dropped 103 points on Dallas in a game that flew well past the total, and that offense – the best shooting team in the league at 48 percent from the field – travels well. The Lynx are 9-2 on the road this season. Natasha Howard is averaging 17.2 points and 8 rebounds a game, and this group scores in bunches from the opening tip, not just once it gets rolling. Portland isn't nearly that explosive, but the Fire can put points on the board too, 84.3 a night with a respectable shooting profile of their own, and Carla Leite pushes tempo as well as anybody on this roster. Put a team that scores in bunches and gives points up in bunches on the road against a team that can play at that same pace, and the result is a fast, station-to-station game from the jump, exactly the shape that pushes both the first-half number and the full-game total over while keeping a home underdog live against a number this size. Minnesota is the better team and should win this one, but a track meet doesn't let a big favorite pull away the way a grind-it-out game would, and it doesn't wait until the third quarter to show up either. Portland's own offense is live enough to keep pace possession for possession even in a loss. Minnesota's offense pushes this game over the total from both ends of the floor, and that same up-and-down pace is exactly what keeps the Fire inside the number. Three picks here: Take the first-half OVER, the full-game OVER, and take Portland with the points tonight.

We backed the Sparks as a shorthanded underdog against this same Minnesota team Wednesday and cashed comfortably, Los Angeles keeping it within nine despite carrying a spread built for a runaway. That number problem hasn't gone away. The Lynx enter tonight at 19-6 and riding a four-game winning streak, but look at how those four wins actually finished: six points over Connecticut, five over New York, four over Phoenix, nine over the Sparks. Minnesota has built the best record in the league without Napheesa Collier ever suiting up this season, leaning on Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride to win with efficiency rather than separation, not on nightly blowouts. Portland is no juggernaut itself, sitting near the bottom of the league defensively and coming off a 33-point beatdown from this same Minnesota team back in June, but the Fire did bounce back from a rough stretch with a comfortable road win at Washington Thursday, and sharp money has already found its way to Portland's side of this number. Eleven and a half points is more cushion than I need against a team that hasn't separated from anybody lately, and it's the best spot on the board tonight. At a payout of better than 6-to-1, the moneyline is worth a small flyer too: the Lynx don't need to slip up often for that price to pay off over time. Take the Fire as my WNBA Game of the Week on the spread, and grab a flyer on the moneyline tonight.

Portland played last night, riding the emotional high of a come-from-behind 84-83 win in Dallas that snapped a four-game skid. The Lynx are the best team in the league — top-ranked defense, a net rating of 14.8 that leads the WNBA, and an 8-2 mark against the spread this season. Courtney Williams and Olivia Miles have carried the load without Napheesa Collier, who has been sidelined since the start of the year, and they've done it exceptionally. But the posted number asks Minnesota to win convincingly in the double digits, something even elite teams rarely pull off against competitive opposition in a 40-minute game. Portland has legitimate pieces. Megan Gustafson gives them a frontcourt option that draws defensive attention, and the Fire have enough perimeter creation to chip away at any lead when the other team eases up. The back-to-back adds a real headwind for Portland. The number cancels it out. Back Portland tonight.