Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Phoenix left Las Vegas this weekend after absorbing the third-largest blowout in WNBA history, a 106-58 defeat that dropped the Mercury to 8-16 and extended their losing streak to three. That kind of margin tends to get corrected the next time out, and Nate Tibbetts made clear afterward that his group can’t take the floor like that again. Minnesota sits at 17-6, tied for the league’s best record, coming off a 90-85 win over New York and playing behind the WNBA’s top defense. The Lynx have already handled Phoenix twice this season, including a 34-point win back on June 1, and this line leans on that history repeating a third time. I think that’s asking too much. Minnesota has built this entire 17-6 season without Napheesa Collier, who has yet to play in 2026 as she works back from offseason surgery, so her absence tonight is nothing new for a team that’s been rolling regardless. The number is the issue. Phoenix doesn’t need to be good here, just competitive enough to stay inside a double-digit cushion after that humiliation in Las Vegas, and desperate teams coming off historic blowouts tend to show up with something to prove. My mathematical model makes this line too steep. We’re on the Mercury with the points tonight.

Phoenix dropped a 75-68 decision to the New York Liberty on Friday, pulling within three possessions in the final minute before New York sealed it from the line — a competitive game against one of the best teams in the league. The Mercury are 2-7, but the record flatters the situation somewhat; Kahleah Copper is in the middle of the worst shooting stretch of her career, connecting at a third of her attempts and missing nearly everything from three, and until she finds her shot the offense runs through Alyssa Thomas, who is still one of the most complete players in this league at nearly 17 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists a game. Minnesota comes in at 6-2 and just routed Chicago, but the Lynx are built on defense — they're allowing fewer than 77 points a game, one of the stingiest marks in the league. A low-scoring, grind-it-out game in Phoenix plays right into Thomas's hands and takes the ball out of Minnesota's perimeter shooters' comfort zone. The market has Phoenix priced as an underdog at home, which is too wide for a team with this much talent at the top of their roster. Napheesa Collier is the best player on the floor, but this is a game where the defense dominates on both ends. Phoenix wins at home, and this one stays well UNDER the posted total. Take the Mercury and the UNDER.

Minnesota is without injured superstar Napheesa Collier. But the Lynx should not be taken lightly. They reached the WNBA finals two seasons ago and had the best regular-season record at 34-10 last year. They have retained their second- and third-best players, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams. Minnesota also has the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors in point guard Olivia Miles, the No. 2 selection in the 2026 draft. She had 21 points, eight assists, two steals, and two blocks in her Minnesota WNBA debut, a 91-90 home loss to Atlanta this past Saturday. The Lynx covered as 5.5-point underdogs. This is a huge revenge spot for the Lynx as the Mercury eliminated them in the second round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix sprung a major upset in its opener, beating Las Vegas, 99-66, but then fell to Golden State, 95-79, as 2.5-point road underdogs this past Sunday night. Minnesota is the more rested team, as this will be the Mercury's third game in four days. Phoenix superstar Alyssa Thomas and Miles rank first and fourth, respectively, in assists. They combine to average more than 40 points a game. The Lynx led the WNBA in scoring last year at 86.1 points per game. Take the Lynx to cover, and bet this game OVER.

Phoenix has gone UNDER 12 of 16 overall and seven of eight at home. Five of seven meetings have stayed UNDER and the Mercury are 15-8 UNDER at home against Minnesota. The Mercury are 5-1 UNDER their past six following an ATS win. The Lynx will be without Napheesa Collier, who has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury. She averaged 22.9 points in the regular season and 20.6 points in the playoffs so far. Phoenix is 28-20-2 UNDER on the season and it has allowed 76.6 points per game in the postseason. The UNDER is 8-2 in the Mercury's past 10 games following a win. Take the UNDER.

Minnesota will be in a foul mood after blowing a 48-32 halftime lead and losing in overtime 89-83 in Game 2 as Phoenix made 13 3-point shots in the game. The Lynx had won four in a row, and they are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games following an ATS loss. The Mercury are 1-4 ATS after a win. Phoenix has gone under five straight games with two days' rest, and the Mercury have stayed under in 10 of 11 home games. Phoenix is 12-2 UNDER following an ATS win and 15-3 UNDER following a straight-up victory. Minnesota has won four of its past six road games outright, and the Lynx have still won 18 of 22 meetings with Phoenix overall, 19 of 22 on the road. Look for a bounce-back win for Minnesota and take the Lynx on the moneyline and the UNDER.