Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

This is already the fourth meeting this season and Phoenix has covered the number in two of them, including an outright 79-71 win last Wednesday, outscoring the Lynx 27-14 in the fourth quarter. The Mercury somehow pulled out the victory while missing 15 of 16 3-pointers, and Alyssa Thomas scored a team-leading 29 points. Phoenix has won and covered three in a row following a 78-77 win at Golden State on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog. Minnesota is home following four road games in six days and it won two of them. The last three went OVER and four of the past six home games with Phoenix have gone OVER. The Mercury have won nine of 11 and they have gone OVER six of nine. Phoenix is 5-1 OVER its past six Wednesday games. The Mercury has covered four straight against teams with winning records. Three plays here: Take the Mercury ATS as a best bet, bet Phoenix on the moneyline, and play the OVER.

Minnesota begins a four-game road trip. They just finished a five-game homestand, losing to Indiana as a double-digit favorite, plus squeezing out an 80-75 win in the last game over Chicago as 14.5-point chalk. The Lynx were playing their fourth game in six days. While Minnesota is second in the league in scoring, Phoenix is fourth (84.8 ppg). They're also third in 3-point shooting, on a 10-4 run OVER the total. They play their second straight at home after ripping Dallas, 102-72. Phoenix is 8-3 straight-up at home, so back home court in a high-scoring tilt. Play Phoenix + OVER the total + on the moneyline.

Phoenix is getting substantial points against Minnesota, which 0-5 ATS its past five games, including 0-3 ATS at home. The teams have already met this season and the Mercury covered as a 5-point underdog, losing 74-71 on Friday, even while shooting just 36 percent overall and 28 percent on 3-point tries. They held the Lynx to 3-for-26 from beyond the arc as the game stayed UNDER by 12.5 points. Phoenix is 5-2 straight up and 4-2-1 UNDER. Minnesota has gone UNDER four of its past six games. The Lynx are 7-0 while playing a relatively weak schedule and tonight's matchup will arguably be their toughest of the season so far. Take the points with the Mercury and the UNDER.

Unbeaten Minnesota is fifth in the league in field goal shooting allowed (42.12%). They've allowed an average of 76 points in the last three games (2-1 UNDER the total). Phoenix focuses on defense, ranking No. 1 in the WNBA in points allowed (74.6 per game) and fourth in field goal shooting percentage allowed (40.94%). The offense ranks just eighth in scoring and shooting, and 10th from the free throw line (73.5%). Seattle is 3-2 UNDER the total this season, and this matchup appears to be a hard-fought defensive duel. Take Minnesota/Phoenix UNDER the total.