Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix heads out on the road ranked ninth in the league defensively in points allowed (84.8 per game). Phoenix is on a 7-4 run OVER the total, as well as 7-3 OVER on the road. Minnesota has a balanced offense with Napheesa Collier (20.4 ppg) and Alanna Smith (10.1 ppg) up front and a backcourt of Kayla McBride (15 ppg) and Courtney Williams (11.1 ppg). They're third in the WNBA in field goal shooting (44.8%), No. 1 from 3-point land (38%), and fifth from the line (79%). These teams last met in August in an 89-76 Minnesota win that sailed OVER the total. Take Phoenix/Minnesota OVER the total. 

Phoenix will try to slow down the Lynx, who have won six in a row, and the Mercury have the trends in their favor as they are 7-2-1 ATS following a loss, 8-3 ATS their past 11 home games and they have covered four straight against Western Conference foes. The UNDER is 28-11-1 in Phoenix's past 40 games against teams with winning records and the Mercury are 4-1-1 UNDER their past six home contests. Minnesota has gone UNDER nine of 13 overall and the Lynx are 20-5-1 UNDER versus teams with winning records dating to last season. Phoenix won the first meeting this season 81-80 and now it looks for payback for a 73-60 loss to the Lynx on June 22. Two Max Plays on this game: Take the Mercury ATS (Max), and bet this one to stay UNDER the total (Max).

Phoenix has shaken off a slow start this season and now has won five of seven and the Mercury are 5-0 ATS their past five games, including a 99-93 victory as a five-point underdog against New York on Tuesday. The Mercury hit 15 of 30 3-point tries and shot 55 percent and six scorers were in double figures. Phoenix will try to snap Minnesota's five-game win streak and the Lynx's last loss was to the Mercury on June 7. The Lynx were held to 39 percent shooting in that game and Phoenix won despite shooting just 41 percent. The Lynx had no answer for Kahleah Copper, who scored 34 points. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS playing with two days rest. Take the Mercury ATS as a Max Play and on the moneyline.

Phoenix looks to avenge a 95-71 blowout loss last Friday when the Lynx jumped out to a 55-31 halftime lead and hit 14 3-pointers in the game. The Mercury have won three of four home games this season, including an 87-68 rout of Los Angeles on Sunday and covering as a five-point favorite. They're getting points in this matchup and Phoenix has gone UNDER five of its past seven games, including by 22 points agains Seattle on Tuesday. The Lynx are 5-2 UNDER their past seven road games and Phoenix is 26-11-1 UNDER its past 38 games against teams with winning records. Look for the Mercury to get off to a better start in this rematch. Take the points with the Mercury and the UNDER.