Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Point Spread Picks

New York walked into Tuesday's game as favorites over Dallas and left with an ugly 88-77 loss, the kind of letdown spot that tends to sharpen a team rather than linger. The good news for the Liberty: they've already solved this Minnesota puzzle once this month, blowing past the Lynx by 13 points. Minnesota is still working without Napheesa Collier, who remains out recovering from ankle surgery, and the committee approach around Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams has papered over that absence well enough to sit at 16-6, but it's not the same ceiling New York already cracked open. We backed Connecticut plus the points against this Minnesota team on Wednesday and cashed, a reminder that the Lynx are still finding their margins thin without their best player. The sharp money agrees tonight, too, already lining up on the Liberty side. New York gets a full week's rest and a number that gives a real cushion after one bad shooting night. Take the Liberty with the points this afternoon.

We took the UNDER with Minnesota Sunday in Dallas and cashed it, a possession-by-possession win that stayed in the 160s once the Lynx defense got its hands on things. That same identity travels to Brooklyn tonight, but this is the toughest matchup of Minnesota's season: the league's other elite team, on its own floor, with Jonquel Jones controlling the paint and Breanna Stewart doing what she's done all year. Napheesa Collier is a game-time decision after her first practice reps since ankle surgery, and even if she plays, nobody looks like an MVP candidate in a season debut off a nine-month layoff. That's a genuine swing factor, but it's not the kind of swing that turns a two-and-a-half point spread into a laugher either way. I like New York getting the number here. The Liberty have been sharper at home than on the road all season, and a game between the two best teams left in this league rarely gets decided by more than a possession. That same tightness argues for the total staying under, too: two defenses this good playing a game this close tend to grind, not run. Minnesota's defensive rating is the best in the WNBA, and New York's offense has been noticeably tamer at Barclays than on the move. Take New York with the points, and pair it with the UNDER tonight.

Minnesota has won six in a row while averaging 91.8 points. The Lynx have gone OVER five of their past six road games. New York scores 86.5 points per game this season and allows 81.6. The Liberty have lost three of four as fatigue appears to have set in after playing eight of 10 games on the road. This will be their fourth road contest in eight days and the Liberty have allowed 87.3 points per game in those four games. Minnesota has won all three meetings this season while averaging 89.7 points. Take the OVER.

New York is in double revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including 83-71 on Sunday. The Liberty likely were looking ahead to this game when they lost 83-77 to Las Vegas on Wednesday, even though the Aces shot just 38 percent. The Liberty missed 18 of 25 3-point tries. New York has won four of six. Thirteen of its past 18 games at Minnesota have gone OVER. The Lynx have gone OVER five of seven, and they have averaged 93.9 points in their past eight games. The Liberty exploded for 105 points while defeating Los Angeles on the road on Tuesday before cooling off against the Aces in the second of a back-to-back. They have had two days to prepare for this matchup. Take the Liberty on the moneyline and the OVER.

Combine the Liberty (-165) and the Aces (-900) into a 2-team parlay at -127 odds.