Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Point Spread Picks

New York has won three of four meetings with Minnesota this season, including Sunday's 91-75 Game 1 win that leaves the Lynx facing elimination tonight. Most of that margin came from the three-point line. The Liberty made 13 of 25 threes (52%), up from 34.8% across the regular season, and Breanna Stewart poured in 34. Minnesota went 9 of 26, well under its own 38.2% season mark, and still forced 21 New York turnovers. Repeating that shooting line in an elimination game is a lot to ask from a team who also gave the ball away 21 times. Minnesota finished 33-11 with the league's best scoring margin at 7.2 points per game, and it went 18-4 on the road. New York closed its regular season with two straight home losses to Atlanta. The number has also moved toward Minnesota since it opened, even with most of the tickets on New York. Back Minnesota to cover tonight.

Minnesota owns the league's best record at 31-9, but the Lynx have built it mostly on the road, going 17-3 away from home compared to a pedestrian 14-6 mark in their own building. New York, at 24-16, has already clinched a playoff spot and closed out its last stretch on a win, going 7-3 over its final ten games before this break. The two teams' point differentials tell a real story, with Minnesota outscoring opponents by nearly eight a game against New York's own plus-three mark, and that gap is exactly why this line sits where it does. But Minnesota also dropped its final two games before the layoff, losing to Golden State and Atlanta back-to-back, a rare cold stretch for a team this good, and the Lynx haven't been nearly as sharp at home as their overall record suggests. A Liberty club that's earned its own playoff spot and is catching a Lynx team that's better on the road than at home is exactly the kind of matchup where the cushion matters. New York is the right side on the spread tonight, and I don't expect this number to hold.

New York walked into Tuesday's game as favorites over Dallas and left with an ugly 88-77 loss, the kind of letdown spot that tends to sharpen a team rather than linger. The good news for the Liberty: they've already solved this Minnesota puzzle once this month, blowing past the Lynx by 13 points. Minnesota is still working without Napheesa Collier, who remains out recovering from ankle surgery, and the committee approach around Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams has papered over that absence well enough to sit at 16-6, but it's not the same ceiling New York already cracked open. We backed Connecticut plus the points against this Minnesota team on Wednesday and cashed, a reminder that the Lynx are still finding their margins thin without their best player. The sharp money agrees tonight, too, already lining up on the Liberty side. New York gets a full week's rest and a number that gives a real cushion after one bad shooting night. Take the Liberty with the points this afternoon.

We took the UNDER with Minnesota Sunday in Dallas and cashed it, a possession-by-possession win that stayed in the 160s once the Lynx defense got its hands on things. That same identity travels to Brooklyn tonight, but this is the toughest matchup of Minnesota's season: the league's other elite team, on its own floor, with Jonquel Jones controlling the paint and Breanna Stewart doing what she's done all year. Napheesa Collier is a game-time decision after her first practice reps since ankle surgery, and even if she plays, nobody looks like an MVP candidate in a season debut off a nine-month layoff. That's a genuine swing factor, but it's not the kind of swing that turns a two-and-a-half point spread into a laugher either way. I like New York getting the number here. The Liberty have been sharper at home than on the road all season, and a game between the two best teams left in this league rarely gets decided by more than a possession. That same tightness argues for the total staying under, too: two defenses this good playing a game this close tend to grind, not run. Minnesota's defensive rating is the best in the WNBA, and New York's offense has been noticeably tamer at Barclays than on the move. Take New York with the points, and pair it with the UNDER tonight.