Los Angeles Sparks vs San Antonio Silver Stars Point Spread Picks

The LA Sparks are 21-8 on the season and are certainly a team capable of cutting down the nets at the end of the WNBA Playoffs. They have been the WNBA's hottest spread team over their last 22 games at 17-5. It comes down to a pair of things here for LA. This game is vs. the WNBA's worst team, which suggests at this stage of the season a "breather" alert for the Sparks. Second, they have beaten this team twice already on the season, but by just 12 and five points, and the line is higher for this one than the previous two. LA has dominated this series on the scoreboard, winning eight straight, but the ATS story paints an entirely different picture as they are just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings vs. the Stars, including 0-5-1 ATS in their last six here in LA. Take the points and play on San Antonio.

The LA Sparks have a roster of stars, and after winning it all last season, they don't have the same killer instinct as they did. Despite a 15-6 record on the season, things just look different this year. Last year this team posted double-digit wins in 16 games, but have managed just eight this season. This team has shown consistency in failing to bring the "A" game to the court against lesser competition. Since the start of last season, the Sparks are a woeful 3-12 ATS as a favorite of -11 or more. Meanwhile the Silver Stars may be void of winning at just 3-16 on the season, but have been more competitive than the record, and over the last two years they are 12-4 ATS when taking 11.5 points or more. This one looks ugly, but history shows otherwise, so take the points on San Antonio.

San Antonio has given up 85 points in three straight games, all losses at home. They head to Los Angeles to face the Sparks, the top offensive team in the WNBA with 87.2 points per game. This is the second straight home game for Los Angeles off a double-digit win. The Sparks opened a three-game homestand with a 97-87 victory over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday shooting 57.4%. They've won four of five, scoring 90, 89 and 97 points the last three games and will shred this soft San Antonio defense. Play the OVER.

San Antonio is a big dog but plays good defense, preferring a slower pace while ranking fourth in the WNBA in points allowed. That defense shined the last game in a 71-67 victory at Atlanta as a +8.5 dog allowing 30.7% shooting, including holding the Dream to 2-for-18 from three-point land. They covered as a +13 dog in their previous game against powerhouse Minnesota, allowing 81 points -- 4.6 points below the Lynx's season average. Los Angeles had a dominant first half but has been erratic in the second half, losing 7 of 12. They've lost three of the last four despite being favored in all of them. L.A. has also been overrated by oddsmakers, on a 3-10 spread run. The Sparks have been resting players down the stretch, including a pair of starters in a 78-60 loss to the Seattle Storm two games ago as a favorite. The Sparks are on a 19-43-1 ATS run at home while the Stars are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, so back the big dog. Play San Antonio.