Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Los Angeles didn't fold at Atlanta on Monday, erasing a double-digit deficit to grab the lead in the fourth quarter before the Dream pulled away late in a 101-92 finish. That fight matters this afternoon against a Minnesota team that has authored the WNBA's best record, 18-6, without its best player playing a single game: Napheesa Collier is still working back from surgery on both ankles and has yet to suit up this season. The Lynx have gotten here on depth and shot-making, not nightly blowouts, and outside of a 34-point rout of a reeling Phoenix club, most of Minnesota's wins have come by far tighter margins than this number implies. Kelsey Plum's four-week absence with a leg injury guts the Sparks offense on paper, but it also strips away the pressure to protect a lead or force a result. I like the number here: Los Angeles can play loose and make Minnesota execute for 40 minutes to cover a spread built for a team that hasn't needed to run up scores like this on a nightly basis. We're getting a shorthanded underdog with plenty of margin for error at this number. Take the Sparks with the points this afternoon.

Minnesota is the best team in the league at 11-3, fresh off dropping 107 on Portland, and they travel with the stingiest defense in the WNBA, holding teams under 76 a night. Los Angeles sits at .500 and just got held to 58 in a 20-point loss at Golden State, the kind of no-show this offense is prone to. The Sparks run everything through Kelsey Plum, and a defense this good against an offense that disappears for stretches points to a slog: half-court, low-possession, clock-draining basketball. That style keeps the scoreboard down, and it keeps a home underdog within range of a double-digit number, because fewer trips mean fewer chances for Minnesota to pull away late. The risk is a track meet against L.A.'s soft defense. The likelier path is a Minnesota team content to grind, win the game, and empty the bench early. I'm trusting the Sparks to stay inside the number at home. Take Los Angeles. 

Los Angeles is in double revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including 101-78 last Saturday when the Lynx held a 58-26 halftime lead before the Sparks woke up and outscored them 52-43 in the second half. The Sparks will try to recall what they did right after the intermission as they look for payback tonight. Minnesota is just 2-3-1 ATS its past six home games against Los Angeles, which is scoring 82.1 points per game compared to 85.1 for the Lynx. Only three of Minnesota's 11 wins have come against teams that currently are above .500. The Lynx are 4-6 ATS their past 10 games. Take the Sparks ATS and on the moneyline.

Los Angeles comes off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Las Vegas on the road 97-89 on Wednesday. The Sparks shot 57 percent, and Rickea Jackson led the scoring with 30 points. Los Angeles got 81 of its 97 points from just four players. The defense was also stellar, as the Aces were held to 38 percent shooting and nine of 35 from 3-point range. The Sparks will look to continue that momentum against Minnesota, which lost its first game of the year, 94-84 at Seattle in the Lynx's fourth road game in five games. They are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, 1-3-1 ATS in their past five home games against Los Angeles. The Sparks have covered six of seven road games dating to last season and Minnesota is 1-4 ATS playing on two days rest. Take the Sparks ATS and on the moneyline.

Minnesota opened the new campaign with a 99-84 victory at Dallas as Napheesa Collier scored 34 points. They shot 53% from the field and made 22 free throws (78.6%). Minnesota is on a 10-6 run OVER the total. Los Angeles and its new-look offense impressed in an 84-67 win over Golden State. Newcomer Kelsey Plum had 37 points as the team shot 46% from the field and 36.8% from area code three. Play Minnesota/Los Angeles OVER the total.