Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Minnesota enters this one at 25-6, the best record in the league, and getting Napheesa Collier back from ankle surgery has only deepened an already stacked roster. We took Indiana against this same Minnesota team four days ago, and it didn't go our way: the Lynx led wire-to-wire to win by eight, 108-100, the kind of result that explains why Minnesota is priced this heavily again tonight. Los Angeles is 11-18 and now without Kelsey Plum, sidelined by an ankle sprain that will keep her out at least a week. None of that argues Los Angeles wins this game outright, and it shouldn't: this is about the number, not the final score. That 15.5 points is an enormous number to lay even for a team playing this well, and the line has already come in from where it opened, Minnesota's moneyline dropping from -1600 to -1400 as the market backed off the most extreme version of this spread. Blowouts happen against a team this shorthanded, but elite teams running up 16-plus most nights against bad opponents isn't the norm even in the WNBA's most lopsided matchups, and a comfortable Minnesota lead invites bench minutes and a backdoor cover late. Take Los Angeles with the points tonight.

Los Angeles didn't fold at Atlanta on Monday, erasing a double-digit deficit to grab the lead in the fourth quarter before the Dream pulled away late in a 101-92 finish. That fight matters this afternoon against a Minnesota team that has authored the WNBA's best record, 18-6, without its best player playing a single game: Napheesa Collier is still working back from surgery on both ankles and has yet to suit up this season. The Lynx have gotten here on depth and shot-making, not nightly blowouts, and outside of a 34-point rout of a reeling Phoenix club, most of Minnesota's wins have come by far tighter margins than this number implies. Kelsey Plum's four-week absence with a leg injury guts the Sparks offense on paper, but it also strips away the pressure to protect a lead or force a result. I like the number here: Los Angeles can play loose and make Minnesota execute for 40 minutes to cover a spread built for a team that hasn't needed to run up scores like this on a nightly basis. We're getting a shorthanded underdog with plenty of margin for error at this number. Take the Sparks with the points this afternoon.

Minnesota is the best team in the league at 11-3, fresh off dropping 107 on Portland, and they travel with the stingiest defense in the WNBA, holding teams under 76 a night. Los Angeles sits at .500 and just got held to 58 in a 20-point loss at Golden State, the kind of no-show this offense is prone to. The Sparks run everything through Kelsey Plum, and a defense this good against an offense that disappears for stretches points to a slog: half-court, low-possession, clock-draining basketball. That style keeps the scoreboard down, and it keeps a home underdog within range of a double-digit number, because fewer trips mean fewer chances for Minnesota to pull away late. The risk is a track meet against L.A.'s soft defense. The likelier path is a Minnesota team content to grind, win the game, and empty the bench early. I'm trusting the Sparks to stay inside the number at home. Take Los Angeles. 

Los Angeles is in double revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including 101-78 last Saturday when the Lynx held a 58-26 halftime lead before the Sparks woke up and outscored them 52-43 in the second half. The Sparks will try to recall what they did right after the intermission as they look for payback tonight. Minnesota is just 2-3-1 ATS its past six home games against Los Angeles, which is scoring 82.1 points per game compared to 85.1 for the Lynx. Only three of Minnesota's 11 wins have come against teams that currently are above .500. The Lynx are 4-6 ATS their past 10 games. Take the Sparks ATS and on the moneyline.

Los Angeles comes off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Las Vegas on the road 97-89 on Wednesday. The Sparks shot 57 percent, and Rickea Jackson led the scoring with 30 points. Los Angeles got 81 of its 97 points from just four players. The defense was also stellar, as the Aces were held to 38 percent shooting and nine of 35 from 3-point range. The Sparks will look to continue that momentum against Minnesota, which lost its first game of the year, 94-84 at Seattle in the Lynx's fourth road game in five games. They are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, 1-3-1 ATS in their past five home games against Los Angeles. The Sparks have covered six of seven road games dating to last season and Minnesota is 1-4 ATS playing on two days rest. Take the Sparks ATS and on the moneyline.