Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

We had Washington's number in this same building Monday, backing a seven-game winning streak into Las Vegas, and it snapped there, the Mystics falling by ten to end the run. Vegas gets another crack at the same team tonight, but not with the same roster. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is out with a concussion, Dana Evans is out with a leg injury, Kierstan Bell is out for personal reasons, and Justine Pissott is questionable with a leg issue of her own, four bodies missing or banged up from a team that was already inconsistent before the injury list piled up. Two days before that Washington loss, the Aces were blown out by forty points in New York, 111-71, the kind of collapse that doesn't happen to a team playing complete basketball. Vegas is 23-11 and scores at a 90.9 clip, but the margin behind that number is a modest 3.6 points a night, not the kind of gap a shorthanded team should be laying tonight. Washington answered Monday's loss the way a good team does: Iriafen grabbed 13 rebounds in that game alone, and the Mystics are 19-13 and 7-3 over their last ten. A thinned-out favorite giving away that many points to a team that just proved it belongs in this fight is exactly the number I want tonight. Take the Mystics as my WNBA Game of the Week.

Washington has won seven straight, a run that includes wins over Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas twice, and Las Vegas itself, and that kind of stretch doesn't happen by accident against this level of competition. Tonight opens a back-to-back in Las Vegas against an Aces team that rested its top four Sunday, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, A'ja Wilson and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, and gets all of them back tonight against a Mystics team playing its best basketball of the year. Vegas sits at 19-8 with one of the better net ratings in the league, so this isn't a case of chasing points off a bad team. It's a case of a hot road team getting a full number against a quality opponent one game into a scheduled back-to-back, and that's exactly the kind of spot where the number covers more often than the standings suggest. We were on the number against Las Vegas just three days ago, backing Minnesota to knock off a tired Aces group, and it cashed. Washington brings a deeper level of form into this one than that Minnesota team did, riding the same fade against the same opponent one more time. Take Washington and the points tonight.

We backed Washington as a plus-number underdog against Golden State a few days ago, and it cashed with room to spare, the Mystics grinding out a game that never got away from them. That's been the story of this Washington season: a roster built around Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron, both playing well enough to be All-Stars this weekend, has kept the Mystics inside close numbers even in tough spots. Las Vegas arrives with the more decorated resume, A'ja Wilson putting together an MVP-caliber season at better than 25 points a night with Chelsea Gray running one of the league's better offenses, but the number tonight is a big one to ask of a Washington team that has covered spreads this size or larger in the clear majority of its chances as an underdog this year. Both clubs are playing their last game before the break, so fatigue isn't the edge here; the number is. A roster carrying two All-Star starters isn't one I want to lay this kind of number against. Back Washington on the spread tonight.

The Las Vegas defense is eighth in points surrendered (82 per game), eighth in shooting allowed, and ninth in defensive rebounding. They're on a 10-7 run OVER the total. The offense has been hot, winning 10 of 11 while topping 89 or more points six times. Las Vegas is second in the league from the charity stripe (82.3%). Washington's offense is sixth in shooting (44.4%) and fifth from 3-point land (33.6%). Take Las Vegas/Washington OVER the total. 

Las Vegas winds up a five-game road trip here, and it has been a good one so far, losing at the defending champs (tied in the fourth quarter), but winning at Phoenix (84-81) as a +5.5 underdog and at Connecticut (86-68). They're No. 1 in the WNBA from the charity stripe (84.6%), and on a 5-3 SU/ATS run. Washington has failed to cover three in a row, losing twice, including a 79-71 defeat to Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite. They're favored but the offense is 11th in points scored, ninth in 3-point shooting, and last from the free-throw line (73.6%). Washington has failed to cover three of its last four at home, as well as its last three as a favorite. Play Las Vegas.