Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

A'ja Wilson made her return look effortless Thursday, dropping 32 points and 10 rebounds in her first game back from a three-game injury absence, and that's the version of Las Vegas Phoenix has to solve tonight. The two teams have already split a pair of meetings this season, including a stunning 99-66 Mercury win to open the year, so Phoenix knows this Vegas roster can be had on the right night. DeWanna Bonner became just the third player in WNBA history to reach 8,000 career points this week, a reminder that even a rebuilding 8-15 Phoenix squad still has professionals capable of keeping a game from getting away. There's also a situational trend working in Phoenix's favor: teams that jump from a favorite one night into a big underdog price the next have found real value catching that number. At double digits, Phoenix doesn't have to be competitive for forty minutes, just competitive enough to keep this inside the number Wilson's big night has inflated. The market has moved fast off one huge individual performance, and numbers built on one game tend to overcorrect. I like the value on the Mercury well beyond just surviving here. Take Phoenix with the double-digit cushion tonight.

Las Vegas arrives in Phoenix at 10-4, and on paper, that gap looks enormous against a 4-11 Mercury team going nowhere. Look closer at the spot. The Aces just got run off the floor in Dallas, a 30-point loss that exposed how flat they can play, and they're back on the road again with Jewell Loyd (illness) questionable. Phoenix isn't good, but they already hung a blowout on Vegas once this season on opening night, and they're home, where strange things happen to favorites that show up disinterested. This is a price play, plain and simple. At +270, Phoenix only has to win this a little better than one time in four to show a profit, and a banged-up Aces team on the second leg of a road trip is exactly the kind of favorite that hands you that one. Phoenix doesn't need to win most nights at these odds. It just needs to win a touch more often than the market is pricing. Take the Mercury and the fat number tonight. 

A rematch of the WNBA Finals to open the new season. Phoenix returns star forward Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. Thomas is a remarkable player, averaging 15.4 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.8 rebounds last year. Phoenix had winning records both home and away, with a defense that ranked fifth in points allowed (80.1 per game) and fourth in opponent shooting percentage (42.7%). Phoenix is on an 18-7 run UNDER the total in the regular season. They were swept by Las Vegas in four Finals games, though two were by 3 and 2 points. They also won at Las Vegas, 76-70, during the regular season, with three of the four meetings decided by 6, 3, and 3 points. Las Vegas is on a 7-5 run UNDER the total in regular-season action. Play Phoenix on the moneyline + UNDER the total.

There is great urgency for the Mercury coming home down 0-2 to the Aces in the championship series. Phoenix is 3-1 SU and ATS in its past four home playoff games. The Mercury impressively eliminated the Lynx and Liberty. Minnesota had the best regular-season record, and New York was the defending WNBA champion. The Aces are 1-2 SU and ATS in their three playoff away games. The Aces have also played weaker competition in the postseason, facing Seattle and a severely shorthanded Indiana. Even then, Las Vegas needed overtime at home to eliminate the Fever in Game 3 of their semifinal series. Las Vegas has League MVP A'ja Wilson, along with All-Stars Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. Phoenix can match that star power with triple-double machine Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally. Each team gave up an average of 75 points during the regular season, but the Mercury ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage while the Aces were sixth. Play Phoenix on the moneyline.