Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Minnesota is 28-7 and has the best record in the league, but Las Vegas isn't some pushover catching a letdown spot. The Aces are 24-11 themselves, third-best mark in the WNBA, and they're at home tonight, which is exactly the setup I like when fading a heavy favorite: a legitimately good team getting overlooked because the team across from them is having a historic season. A'ja Wilson is averaging 25.9 points and 9.7 rebounds a night and gives Las Vegas a two-way force who can match up with anybody Minnesota trots out, Napheesa Collier included. This is a system I lean on all year, catching a quality home underdog against an elite team, and it's a strong 11-6 for me already this season. A point and a half is next to nothing to lay for the best team in basketball on the road, and I don't need Las Vegas to win outright, just to hang around behind a star who can carry them there. Side with Las Vegas on the spread tonight.

We were on the Sparks getting a big number in Minnesota on Thursday, and it cashed with room to spare when Los Angeles won outright, 89-82, snapping a Lynx winning streak that had reached ten. One bad night at home doesn't undo what this team is. Minnesota owns the best net rating in the league at plus-11.1 per 100 possessions. The defense ranks second in efficiency and allows 83.5 points a night, third-fewest in the WNBA. Las Vegas sits fourth in net rating at plus-6.6 and fifth defensively, giving up 86.5. The schedule does the rest. This is the Aces' fourth road game in seven days, the front end of a back-to-back that ends in New York on Sunday, and they played forty-five minutes at Indiana on Thursday night. Tip is 1:00 Eastern, which is ten in the morning on a Las Vegas body clock. The Aces are 13-4 away from home, so this is not a bad road team. It's a good one dropped into the ugliest scheduling window the league hands out. Minnesota is 4-1 since Napheesa Collier came back from ankle surgery, and the number on this ticket already sits a point better than where the board has moved. Minnesota is the right side on the spread this afternoon, and I don't expect this one to need the number.

Minnesota has won all three meetings with Las Vegas, 76-62, 109-78, and 111-58. Minnesota is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring (87 ppg) and shooting (47%), while the defense is second in points given up and third in shooting allowed (42%). The Lynx are on a 14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS run. Since getting flogged by Minnesota, Las Vegas has won 12 in a row. A'ja Wilson (23.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been the catalyst, but Minnesota has been able to keep her in check. Wilson was held to 15 points and 7 rebounds in a 109-78 loss to the Lynx, and to 10 points and 5 boards in the 111-58 disaster. In those two games, Minnesota shot 54.4% and 59.2%. Play Minnesota.

Las Vegas is in double revenge after being soundly beaten in the first two meetings this season. The Aces have been playing better of late, winning five of seven, including 89-74 over Los Angeles on Tuesday after blowing out Dallas 106-80 two days before. The Aces had one of their best defensive performances of the season, holding the Sparks to 38 percent shooting and 4-for-24 from 3-point range, and A'ja Wilson poured in 34 points for Las Vegas, which has won four of its past five home games. Minnesota has lost five of seven on the road against the Aces. It's a letdown spot for the Lynx as they come off an emotional home win over New York, whom they lost to in the Finals last year. Take the Aces ATS and on the moneyline.