Las Vegas Aces vs Los Angeles Sparks Point Spread Picks

Los Angeles won the last meeting between these teams, a 101-95 decision over Las Vegas on May 23, and Kelsey Plum — who is currently sidelined with an injury — posted 38 points in that game. The Plum news is baked into tonight's number, but what the price may not fully reflect is the physical toll on a Las Vegas team wrapping up a three-game road trip after playing at Chase Center just last night. A'ja Wilson will produce; she always does. But the Aces running their paint-dominant attack — they lead the league in scoring in the paint — on third-road-game legs against a Sparks team that still has Dearica Hamby, Cameron Brink, and Erica Wheeler at home is a tighter equation than the odds suggest. Brink had her best game of the season against Las Vegas in their last meeting. Los Angeles wins tonight. Take the Sparks.

Rest often is good for a pro basketball team. But in the case of the Aces here, it can lead to rust. Las Vegas has not played in six days. That's too much inactivity, especially so early in the season. Los Angeles is off a 97-88 win over Phoenix two days ago, behind a 27-point, 15-rebound performance from former Aces forward Dearica Hamby. She is not the only former Ace player going against her old team today. So is LA's star guard Kelsey Plum, who is the WNBA's No. 2 scorer at 24.6 points per game. The Stars are not as good as the defending-champion Aces, but they can match them in star power with Hamby, Plum, and Nneka Ogwumike, and they have strong motivation for revenge. The Aces embarrassed Los Angeles, 105-78, as a 1.5-point road favorite in the Sparks' opener. Las Vegas  All-Star guard Jackie Young is shooting just 35.4 percent from the floor and was 0-for-12 from the field in the Aces' last game. Take the Sparks.

Las Vegas has won 15 straight, and A'ja Wilson is having an MVP season, averaging 23.4 points. She has been the main catalyst in the Aces' turnaround. They can clinch the No.2 seed in the playoffs with a victory against the Sparks, who have gone OVER four of five against teams with winning records. Los Angeles is 26-16-1 OVER on the season, and five of the past seven meetings have gone OVER. Las Vegas has averaged 89.7 points in its past three games, shooting 55 percent overall and 52 percent from 3-point range on 15-for-29 attempts in its rout of Chicago on Tuesday. The Aces will be motivated from the start as they still have something to play for with an incentive to continue their win streak heading into the playoffs. Take the first half to go OVER. 

Las Vegas is on a 6-5 run, even winning at Phoenix, 84-81, as a +5.5 underdog. They topped Golden State 104-102, shooting 54.8% against the third-best defense, and come off a 106-80 win at Dallas, scoring 56 first-half points. Los Angeles can score with the third-best offense (85 points per game), but they have a losing record because of bad defense. They're 12th in the 13-team league in points given up (87.3 per game), and in shooting allowed (45.1%). Los Angeles is 19-5 OVER the total this season. These teams have played two run-and-gun games when they clashed in 97-89 and 96-81 scores. Back the visitors to win the game with a high-scoring first half. Play Las Vegas on the moneylne + the First Half OVER the total.