Indiana Fever vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

Indiana has scored more than anyone in the league this stretch, riding a three-game winning streak with the league's best offense at right around 97 points a night, but the number sitting next to that production is Caitlin Clark's Day-To-Day tag, and a full workload from her isn't guaranteed this afternoon. Washington's defense is the reason I like this spot regardless: the Mystics allow just 83 points a game, second-best mark in the WNBA, built on discipline rather than one dominant possession. Run the actual per-game splits and this game projects to land right around the number or a shade under it, before accounting for any dip in Indiana's production with Clark compromised. That's the same math driving both bets this afternoon. Washington doesn't need to win outright to cash the spread, it needs its defense to do what it's done all season and keep this from turning into the track meet Indiana's offense wants. Sydney Johnson has Washington playing good basketball down the stretch, 6-4 over its last ten with the defense holding up against good and bad offenses alike, most recently a blowout of Chicago that showed this roster can still put points on the board itself when the matchup opens up. Indiana's own defense sits in the bottom half of the league, so I'm not counting on Washington getting shut down either, which is exactly why the spread and the total point the same direction here: a tighter, lower-scoring game than Indiana's raw numbers suggest. I'm on Washington with the points and the UNDER this afternoon.

Indiana bounced back nicely from its 107-104 loss to Dallas with an 87-78 victory over Los Angeles on Wednesday. Caitlin Clark had 24 points and Kelsey Mitchell 23 for the Fever, who forced 19 turnovers by the Sparks. Washington has split its first two games and comes off a 98-93 overtime loss to New York on Sunday. The Mystics missed 21 of 26 3-pointers and shot 42 percent from the field. Washington is 1-11 in its past 12 games, dating to last season, 1-5 on the road. The Mystics are a young team, and it will take a while for the players to develop into a cohesive unit. Indiana, on the other hand, is looking forward to winning a championship with a healthy Clark. Take the Fever.

Indiana is trying to make the playoffs without Caitlin Clark and it comes off a 97-77 win over Chicago on Friday while shooting 52 percent with five double-figure scorers. It went OVER by 13 points for the Fever's sixth OVER in nine games. They have gone OVER six of seven against the Eastern Conference and Washington is 4-1 OVER its past five Sunday games. The Mystics have allowed 83.6 points per game their past 10 and they have gone OVER four of six home games. Five of the past seven meetings have gone OVER, including Washington's 88-84 victory on Aug. 15. Indiana has averaged 85.3 points in three meetings this year. Take the OVER.

Washington continues in a rebuilding mode and has thrown in the towel for this season after trading its best player, Brittney Sykes, to Seattle. The Mystics have lost five of six following an 88-83 defeat against Golden State on Wednesday. The Valkyries shot 51 percent and went 15-for-32 on 3-point tries. The game soared OVER by 20 points. Indiana has won five of six home games and six of nine altogether as the Fever have adjusted to playing without injured Caitlin Clark. The Mystics are 5-11 on the road and the Fever are 10-7 at home. Washington has allowed an average of 84.6 points in its past five games. Take the Fever on the moneyline and the OVER.