Indiana Fever vs Washington Mystics

Washington comes off a home loss to New York, surrendering 85 points. Their only win over the last five games was against this uptempo Indiana squad in an 83-77 final. Indiana's offense is third in the WNBA in scoring (85.3 ppg) and third in shooting (45.6%). Indiana is 3-1 OVER the total at home this season, part of a 7-3 run OVER at home. The last eight meetings between these teams have had final scores of 83-77, 92-91, 89-84, 88-81, 85-83, 83-79, 82-76, and 96-88, averaging 169.9 points per game. Take Washington/Indiana OVER the total. 

Indiana (3-1 ATS) is the second-highest scoring team in the WNBA, averaging 88 points per game. They're outscoring opponents by +9.2 points, the third-best differential, and are third in shooting (46.1%). They come off a 90-88 loss and cover to defending champion New York. Meanwhile, Washington has lost three in a row, including a six-point loss to the Mercury on Sunday. The Mystics committed a whopping 27 turnovers in that game, and are home for the first time here since opening night (May 16). The travel schedule could take its toll on this team, and I don't think home court will make enough difference. Washington also has a game against the Liberty on-deck, creating a look-ahead situaition. Lay the points with Indiana. 

Washington has turned things around after that brutal 0-12 start. They're on a 5-5 straight-up run along with a 10-2 spread run. Washington is second in the WNBA in 3-point shooting (36.3%), on an 8-4 run OVER the total. Indiana has the second-worst defense in the league (87.23 points per game allowed) and is ninth in turnovers, while the offense is 10th from the free-throw line (76.3%). They're on a 14-6 run OVER the total. The first two meetings between these teams sailed OVER the total in close games decided by 7 and 2 points, so back the dog in a high-scoring battle. Grab the points with Washington, and bet this game OVER the total. 

Washington is out to avenge an 85-83 loss to the Fever on June 7 and the Mystics are enjoying their first two-game win streak of the season after defeating Atlanta and Chicago. The Mystics have covered the spread four in a row and they are 8-5-1 ATS on the season despite not winning their first 12 games. Washington is 7-3 UNDER its past 10 games and 10-3 UNDER playing with at least three days rest dating to last season. The Mystics are 7-3 UNDER against teams with losing records and the UNDER is 8-3 the past 11 meetings. The past five meetings at Indiana have stayed UNDER. Indiana is 4-10 ATS its past 14 games with two days rest and 17-38-2 following a win. The Fever are 3-6 ATS their past nine games overall. Take the Mystics and the UNDER.