Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix opened the campaign's second half with an 85-65 win at Chicago, sailing UNDER by double-digits. Indiana is seventh in the league in 3-point shooting (33%) as they play their first game after the break. They're on a 5-3 run UNDER the total. The defense plays best at home, allowing an average of 80.8 points in their last five home games, seven points less than their overall average. That included an 83-78 upset over New York as a double-digit underdog, allowing 40.8% shooting. Play Phoenix/Indiana UNDER the total. 

Phoenix is on a three-game win streak and it covered the spread in all of them, including a 100-84 domination of Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Kahleah Copper led the Mercury with 32 points and Brittney Griner added 23 points as the team shot 59 percent overall and hit nine of 21 from 3-point range. Indiana has lost four of six after an 89-84 defeat against lowly Washington. Caitlin Clark had 29 points and the Fever lost despite shooting 53 percent. The past four meetings have gone UNDER and Phoenix is 5-2 UNDER its past seven games overall. Indiana has stayed UNDER four of five and it is 2-6 ATS its past eight versus teams with winning records. Phoenix is on a 12-3 ATS run. Take the Mercury and the UNDER.

Indiana had covered the spread five consecutive games before losing 89-77 at Seattle as a nine-point underdog on Thursday. Caitlin Clark and Erica Wheeler scored 15 points apiece for the Fever, who had five double-figure scorers. It took awhile for the Fever to develop some team chemistry and to adjust to the Caitlin Clark mania, but they have won six of 10 outright and Indiana is #3 in the WNBA in 3-point shooting and #4 overall in field goal percentage. Kelsey Mitchell actually is the leading scorer with 16.3 points per game barely above Clark, who averages 16.2. Look for Indiana to stay within the number and take the points with the Fever as a Max Play.

Indiana likes to run averaging over 80 points, fifth in the WNBA in shooting (44.3%) and sixth from the charity stripe (79.9%). But the defense is terrible, last in the league in points surrendered (85.2 pg). Indiana has lost two in a row allowing 100 and 83 points, 24-11 OVER the total after allowing 80+ points in a loss to a division rival. Phoenix is fourth in the WNBA in shooting (44.4%) and fifth from the charity stripe (81.4%). Phoenix is 13-5 OVER the total at home after playing a home game, plus 18-7 OVER after a home loss. These teams played an 85-82 game earlier this season and this shapes up as another one with more offense than defense. Take Indiana/Phoenix OVER the total.