Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Point Spread Picks

We faded Indiana on the road in Los Angeles last Wednesday and cashed, catching a shorthanded Sparks team that simply wouldn't go away. Tonight, the matchup flips, and the number does the Fever a favor. A'ja Wilson is back to full strength after a three-game absence, dropping 32 points and 10 rebounds in her return, and Las Vegas has won its last two behind her. But this Aces team has covered the spread in fewer than half of its games this season despite the gaudy record, and Caitlin Clark, limited to a 20-to-25-minute restriction as she works back from a back injury, is still enough of a threat, with Kelsey Mitchell playing the best stretch of her season alongside her. Vegas already found out what this Indiana team can do when healthy, an 84-68 upset back on July 5 with both stars out that day. A market still riding the emotional high of one huge individual performance is the kind of number worth catching on the other side. Take Indiana with the points tonight.

Indiana looks different than the team Las Vegas is used to seeing, and not just because of who's missing. The Fever used a long break to get whole and came out of it with a 24-point beatdown of the Sparks, with Kelsey Mitchell carrying the offense at 30 and then 26 points in back-to-back outings. Caitlin Clark sits again tonight with a back injury, but Indiana is 2-0 in games Clark has missed this season, and I like this matchup to make it three. A'ja Wilson is out for a third straight game with the ankle she rolled last Sunday, stripping Las Vegas of its leading scorer and its best rim protector in one move. Aliyah Boston should eat against a frontcourt that just lost its anchor. The sharp money already agrees, with the spread and moneyline tilted toward Indiana. Getting points with the Fever against an Aces team missing this much star power is too good to pass up. Take the Fever and the number tonight. 

These two hook up tonight in Vegas for a decisive Game 5 to determine who goes to the WNBA Finals. Indiana took Game 1 in Las Vegas, 89-73, as a +9 underdog, and won Game 4, 90-83, as a +3 underdog with center Aliyah Boston scoring 24 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. Indiana is on a 10-4 ATS run and was third during the regular season in points scored and shooting percentage, as well as fourth from long range. Boston's defense on Las Vegas star center A'ja Wilson has been excellent, holding her to 16 and 13 points in two of the four games. Las Vegas is on a 2-4 spread run, and is 3-4 ATS in its last seven as chalk of eight points or more. Play Indiana.

Indiana is 7-1 UNDER its past eight games and Las Vegas has stayed UNDER four of five. The past nine meetings have stayed UNDER dating to July 2, 2024. The Fever are on a 7-0 UNDER run against the Western Conference and they are 6-1 UNDER playing with one day of rest. The Fever's past four Sunday games have stayed UNDER. The games are getting very physical and Indiana shot just 36 percent on Friday while missing 23 of 30 3-point tries. The Aces hit only four from beyond the arc in 10 attempts. Las Vegas has allowed an average of 75.5 points its past four games. Take the UNDER.

The series is tied 1-1. As the playoffs progress, the defense becomes more intense with so much at stake, and both games have gone under. Las Vegas allowed 41% shooting and forced 22 turnovers while holding Indiana to 68 points in Game 2. Las Vegas is on a 9-5 run UNDER the total. Indiana has home court for the first time in this series. They're on a 9-2 run UNDER the total. Take Las Vegas/Indiana UNDER the total.