Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Point Spread Picks

I had Indiana getting points against Minnesota on Tuesday, and the Fever won that game outright by 19. They closed the regular season with an 86-66 loss in Minnesota two nights later. Las Vegas comes into Game 1 on a seven-game winning streak with a 31-13 record, three games better than Indiana's 28-16. None of that erases what happened when these teams met in Las Vegas. Indiana went there twice in July and won by 16 and then by 34. The Aces' only win in the series came in Indiana in August, by two points. The Fever lead the league in scoring at 96.0 points per game, and their 38.6% from three is also the best in the WNBA. That offense is how Indiana won by 34 on this floor. Aliyah Boston is questionable with a lower-leg injury, and she's the risk in this bet. Caitlin Clark is listed as probable with a back issue. Las Vegas will be without Dana Evans. Indiana has already beaten this team twice on its home floor this season. Indiana is the right side on the spread this afternoon.

Indiana enters on a letdown after Minnesota snapped their five-game win streak earlier this week, but the Fever were far from bad in that loss: both teams shot 57 percent from the floor in as tight a game as this league has seen all year, and Indiana is fully rested heading into tonight's rematch with Las Vegas. Indiana has already beaten this Aces team twice this season, and the Fever are 15-11 against the spread this season, while Las Vegas sits at a rough 7-13. We backed Chicago's plus number against this same Aces team five nights ago, and Vegas led by 10 after three quarters before Chicago erupted for 29 in the fourth to steal it outright, an 84-83 finish that blew well past our cushion. A'ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark are both playing tonight, so nothing about availability changes any of this. Take Indiana with the points.

We faded Indiana on the road in Los Angeles last Wednesday and cashed, catching a shorthanded Sparks team that simply wouldn't go away. Tonight, the matchup flips, and the number does the Fever a favor. A'ja Wilson is back to full strength after a three-game absence, dropping 32 points and 10 rebounds in her return, and Las Vegas has won its last two behind her. But this Aces team has covered the spread in fewer than half of its games this season despite the gaudy record, and Caitlin Clark, limited to a 20-to-25-minute restriction as she works back from a back injury, is still enough of a threat, with Kelsey Mitchell playing the best stretch of her season alongside her. Vegas already found out what this Indiana team can do when healthy, an 84-68 upset back on July 5 with both stars out that day. A market still riding the emotional high of one huge individual performance is the kind of number worth catching on the other side. Take Indiana with the points tonight.